Solar Activity Goes Volcanic

PJoint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2014

IA. 

 Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. 

The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/0926Z from Region 1977 (S10W02). 

There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
day one (17 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity 

Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 438 km/s at 16/0001Z. 

Total IMF reached 17 nT at 16/0403Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 15/2249Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 429
pfu.
IIB. 

 Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb).

III. 

 Event probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M    60/45/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Feb 154
Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb 150/145/135
90 Day Mean        16 Feb 154

V. 

 Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb  017/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  010/012-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A.  

Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe