CDC: Several hundred thousand in U.S. could die from swine flu

Swine flu could strike up to 40 percent in 2 years
By MIKE STOBBE (AP)

ATLANTA — U.S. health officials say swine flu could strike up to 40 percent of Americans over the next two years and as many as several hundred thousand could die if a vaccine campaign and other measures aren't successful.

Those estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention mean about twice the number of people who usually get sick in a normal flu season would be struck by swine flu. Officials said those projections would drop if a new vaccine is ready and widely available, as U.S. officials expect.

The U.S. may have as many as 160 million doses of swine flu vaccine available sometime in October, and U.S. tests of the new vaccine are to start shortly, federal officials said this week.

The infection estimates are based on a flu pandemic from 1957, which killed nearly 70,000 in the United States but was not as severe as the infamous Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-19. But influenza is notoriously hard to predict. The number of deaths and illnesses would drop if the pandemic peters out or if efforts to slow its spread are successful, said CDC spokesman Tom Skinner.

See also:

Swine flu: 100,000 infected in a week
Swine flu infected at least 100,000 Britons last week, officials announced on Thursday.

Swine flu has spread to almost every country: WHO
Brisbane Times -
The swine flu virus has spread to almost every country in the world since it was discovered at the end of March, the World Health Organisation said Friday. "The spread of this virus continues, if you see 160 out of 193 WHO member states now have cases, ...

"We're right in the middle of a surge of swine flu cases where perhaps the United States won't have to worry about it as much until their flu season hits in six months," Vaxine research director Nikolai Petrovsky told the AP.

World's 1st Swine Flu Vaccine Trials Start in Australia

But Petrovsky told BBC News that there "is no guarantee any of these vaccines will work. Swine flu is a very peculiar beast, it's a very different virus that we're dealing with. But we are hopeful."