Solar assault upon the Earth

Editor's note: Brace for multidimensional natural disasters next 10 - 14 days...

Space Weather Message Code: SUMXM5 Serial Number: 123 Issue Time: 2014 Oct 27 0050 UTC SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5 Begin Time: 2014 Oct 27 0006 UTC Maximum Time: 2014 Oct 27 0034 UTC End Time: 2014 Oct 27 0044 UTC X-ray Class: M7.1 Optical Class: 3b Location: S14W44 NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes

Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF Serial Number: 235 Issue Time: 2014 Oct 27 0022 UTC ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5 Threshold Reached: 2014 Oct 27 0020 UTC NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray intensity.

:Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt :Issued: 2014 Oct 27 0000 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# # Geophysical Alert Message # Solar-terrestrial indices for 26 October follow. Solar flux 217 and estimated planetary A-index 12.

The estimated planetary K-index at 0000 UTC on 27 October was 1. Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong.

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 level occurred. Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be strong. Radio blackouts reaching the R3 level are likely.

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at 26/1056Z from Region 2192 (S12W46). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast:

Solar activity is likely to be high on days one, two, and three (27 Oct, 28 Oct, 29 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 422 km/s at 26/0537Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/1801Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/0822Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3489 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (27 Oct) and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct). III. Event probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct Class M 85/85/85 Class X 55/55/55 Proton 40/45/45 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Oct 217 Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 220/220/210 90 Day Mean 26 Oct 141 V.

Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 011/012-008/010-008/010 VI.

Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/15 Minor Storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 40/25/25